November 19, 2019

Which clubs have the bookies nervous?

Patrick Cripps produced a stunning season for the Blues. Picture: AAP Images

NEVER bet against Clarko.

For every punter who has lived by that mantra since Alastair Clarkson took over as Hawthorn coach, the rewards have been exceptional.

But does the master coach have another September special planned for this year?

Not only are his Hawks taking on a rampaging Richmond outfit, they are also fighting history. In the 208 finals played since 1995, only 10 teams have won at odds greater than what the Hawks ($3.20) will jump at come Thursday night.

According to records kept by the TAB, Sydney is the longest priced finals winner, from back when the Swans toppled first placed Port Adelaide in 2003 at whopping odds of $6.50.

The Magpies occupy second on the list, after beating a then first placed Port Adelaide in 2002, paying $5.25.

We said don’t doubt Clarko though and here is why.

The four — time premiership coach also features on this list, after coaching the Hawks to an upset win in the 2008 Grand Final against Geelong. His boys jumped at $$3.25 on that day.

Does Alastair Clarkson have a plan for the Tigers? Picture: Phil Hillyard

Does Alastair Clarkson have a plan for the Tigers? Picture: Phil HillyardSource:News Corp Australia

Biggest upsets in a final series since 1995 (TAB)

QF, 2003 — Sydney ($6.50) defeated Port Adelaide ($1.12) by 12 points

QF, 2002 — Collingwood ($5.25) defeated Port Adelaide ($1.15) by 13 points

QF, 1999 — West Coast ($4.50) defeated Western Bulldogs ($1.18) by 5 points

EF, 2013 — Port Adelaide ($4.50) defeated Collingwood ($1.22) by 24 points

PF, 1999 — Carlton ($4.30) defeated Essendon ($1.22) by 1 point

EF, 2016 — Western Bulldogs ($4) defeated West Coast ($1.26) by 47 points

EF, 2012 — Fremantle ($3.85) defeated Geelong ($1.28) by 16 points

GF, 1997 — Adelaide ($3.40) defeated St Kilda ($1.32) by 31 points

SF, 2001 — Hawthorn ($3.25) defeated Port Adelaide ($1.33) by 3 points

GF, 2008 — Hawthorn ($3.25) defeated Geelong ($1.38) by 26 points

WHERE IS THE FINALS MONEY GOING?

Week 1 Finals — Head to head

$1.36 Richmond (87%)

$3.20 Hawthorn (13%)

“No surprise here, with Richmond heavily backed to win through to the preliminary final. The Tigers opened at $1.40 but the weight of money for the reigning premiers has seen them firm into $1.36.” — Nick Quinn TAB

$1.75 Melbourne (45%)

$2.10 Geelong (55%)

“Punters are tipping Geelong to cause the only upset of the weekend and defeat Melbourne in what should be an amazing match.” — Nick Quinn TAB

$1.70 Sydney (72%)

$2.15 GWS (28%)

“The support for Sydney has been solid throughout the past week and no doubt a lot of punters are waiting to see the final teams on Thursday and specifically, ‘L. Franklin’ to be named on the team sheet.” — Nick Quinn TAB

$1.62 West Coast (81%)

$2.30 Collingwood (19%)

“Despite its impressive interstate record, punters aren’t giving Collingwood too much of a chance in Saturday’s qualifying final.”- Nick Quinn TAB

Can anyone stop the Tigers? Picture: Michael Klein

Can anyone stop the Tigers? Picture: Michael KleinSource:News Corp Australia

WHICH CLUBS HAVE THE TAB NERVOUS?

Richmond is shaping up as a tough result for the bookies this September, with the TAB facing a trio of monster payouts on the Tigers to win the flag.

January 25th is the scene of the crime, with one lucky punter launching at the very generous opening price of $8.

The biggest bet at that price was $25,000 to win a whopping $200,000.

The TAB then brought the price into $7s before another punter jumped on, placing a further $25,000 to win $175,000.

The same bet was placed seven days later.

With the Tigers now just $2.25, there are sure to be some nervous traders on the TAB betting floor.

BIGGEST POTENTIAL COLLECTS WITH TAB

Richmond ($2.25 to win the premiership)

$200,000 ($25,000 at $8 on January 25)

$175,000 ($25,000 at $7 on January 25)

$175,000 ($25,000 at $7 on February 1)

$80,000 ($10,000 at $8 on December 7)

Collingwood ($7)

$52,000 ($2,500 at $21 on April 14)

$26,000 ($1,000 at $26 on December 13)

$26,000 ($1,000 at $26 on March 23)

$17,000 ($1,000 at $17 on April 20)

West Coast ($7.50)

$102,000 ($2,000 at $51 on December 7)

$25,500 ($750 at $34 on April 8)

$18,000 ($2,000 at $9 on July 5)

$17,000 ($1,000 at $17 on April 20)

Are the Eagles going under the radar this finals series? Picture: AAP Images

Are the Eagles going under the radar this finals series? Picture: AAP ImagesSource:AAP

Hawthorn ($8)

$130,000 ($10,000 at $13 on August 17)

$26,000 ($1,000 at $26 on December 19)

$26,000 ($1,000 at $26 on March 16)

$21,000 ($1,000 at $21 on March 27)

Melbourne ($9)

$219,570 ($36,595 at $6 on June 2)

$90,000 ($6,000 at $15 on November 1)

$34,000 ($1,000 at $34 on April 26)

$27,000 ($3,000 at $9 on July 1)

Geelong ($11)

$100,000 ($10,000 at $10 on November 3)

$18,000 ($2,000 at $9 on May 25)

$15,000 ($2,000 at $7.50 on December 22)

$13,000 ($1,000 at $13 on August 19)

Sydney ($21)

$42,000 ($7,000 at $6 on December 7)

$33,600 ($1,600 at $21 on August 26)

$33,000 ($4,400 at $7.50 on May 19)

$27,000 ($3,000 at $9 on May 11)

GWS ($21)

$75,000 ($10,000 at $7.50 on December 7)

$55,000 ($2,000 at $26 on May 26)

$51,000 ($1,000 at $51 on July 31)

$45,000 ($5,000 at $9 on January 14)

Tom Mitchell is the raging Brownlow Medal favourite. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Tom Mitchell is the raging Brownlow Medal favourite. Picture: Phil HillyardSource:News Corp Australia

BROWNLOW WATCHLIST

Is the Brownlow Medal race done?

We are only two weeks away from the official count but Tom Mitchell has been backed into red-hot favouritism at $1.65.

However, a couple of savvy punters will be a little nervous when the 3-2-1s start dropping after getting some stars at BIG prices.

Most notably, the $500 on Max Gawn at $67s is a beauty, while the punter who had $400 on Patrick Cripps at $34 stands to win a tick under $15,000.

However, when it comes to value for money, we love the $50 each way on Brodie Grundy at $501.

BIGGEST BROWNLOW COLLECTS WITH TAB

Tom Mitchell ($1.65 to win the Brownlow)

$8,250 ($5,000 at $1.65 on August 31)

$8,250 ($5,000 at $1.65 on September 1)

$6,750 ($5,000 at $1.35 on August 14)

$6,025 ($1,205 at $5 on April 6)

$5,000 ($2,000 at $2.50 on July 14)

Max Gawn ($7)

$33,500 ($500 at $67 on March 20)

$10,100 ($100 at $101 on December 19)

$10,100 ($100 at $101 on January 25)

$10,100 ($100 at $101 on March 8)

$7,800 ($600 at $13 on May 31)

Dustin Martin ($9)

$13,000 ($1,000 at $13 on August 23)

$13,000 ($1,000 at $13 on August 24)

$8,500 ($500 at $17 on July 21)

$8,000 ($2,000 at $4 to place on August 24)

$6,000 ($2,000 at $3 on April 16)

Patrick Cripps ($11)

$14,525 ($400 at $34 to win, $100 at $9.25 to place on May 13)

$11,110 ($1,010 at $11 on June 24)

$7,620 ($60 each-way at $101/$26 on April 22)

$5,200 ($200 at $26 on May 14)

$5,100 ($100 at $51 on April 27)*

Patrick Cripps produced a stunning season for the Blues. Picture: AAP Images

Patrick Cripps produced a stunning season for the Blues. Picture: AAP ImagesSource:AAP

Brodie Grundy ($13)

$31,350 ($50 each-way at $501/$126 on April 7)

$18,950 ($100 each-way at $151/$38.50 on April 13)*

$16,750 ($250 at $67 on April 18)

$15,100 ($100 at $151 on April 13)

$12,550 ($50 at $251 on April 10)

Dayne Beams ($17)

$7,862.50 ($25 each-way at $251/$63.50 on May 31)

$6,910 ($25 at $251 to win, $10 at $63.50 to place on May 27)

$6,350 ($50 at $101/$26 on June 5)

$5,610 ($110 at $51 on March 17)

$5,100 ($300 at $17 on August 29)

Clayton Oliver ($17)

$18,950 ($100 each-way at $151/$38.50 on July 8)

$14,070 ($210 at $67 on April 12)*

$8,450 ($100 each-way at $67/$17.50 on July 16)

$7,550 ($50 at $151 on July 7)

$7,290 ($90 at $81 on July 9)

Jackson Macrae ($26)

$26,000 ($1,000 at $26 on July 9)

$13,600 ($400 at $34 on May 12)*

$13,000 ($1,000 at $13 on May 19)

$10,200 ($300 at $34 on May 9)

$10,200 ($300 at $34 on August 25)

Patrick Dangerfield ($34)

$10,812.50 ($250 each-way at $34/$9.25 on August 13)

$10,000 ($1,000 at $5 on October 3)

$9,250 ($1,000 at $9.25 to place on August 19)

$7,500 ($500 at $9 to win, $1,000 at $3 to place on April 21)*

$7,480 ($220 at $34 on August 25)

Elliot Yeo ($34)

$39,909 ($159 at $251 on March 8)*

$12,550 ($50 at $251 on March 15)

$10,800 ($800 at $13.50 the place on August 5)

$10,100 ($100 at $101 on June 20)

$9,675 ($150 each-way at $51/$13.50 on August 5)

* = cashed out

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